New iPhones Tuesday

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iPhones have been unavailable at the US Apple Store for a couple of days now. There is no question new phones are right around the corner. My guess is tomorrow, Tuesday. New iPhones immediately for the US, and a trickle to the rest of the world soon after (”in coming weeks and months” or something like that.)

Some believe that Apple is just clearing the channel, but that they won’t release the new phones before the keynote on June 9. That’s a month from now! I don’t believe Apple would be so careless with their logistics that they miss a whole month of sales. That’s just not going to happen.

I can’t remember Apple ever clearing channels that much in advance. And they have had excellent timing for years now. Here’s what I think.

I think we’ll have 3G iPhones tomorrow, with a special firmware release and the iPhone 2.0 firmware at the WWDC. Or, they’ll just surprise everybody and release the 2.0 firmware early. Nothing like beating your own deadlines when competitors scramble to figure you out.

Also, I believe Apple has to change their proprietary distribution model in order to reach other parts of the world quickly enough. Nokia, RIM and others are chasing them, and people are buying their phones when Apple isn’t selling them iPhones. There has already been rumors about the new iPhones being release really soon in about 10 countries, but I think the number will be higher. Time to move on.

Related news? If iPhones are released earlier than at the World Wide Developer Conference in June, why is Jobs keynoting @ WWDC? Is he retiring? Must be something big.

Last year at WWDC he showed Leopard and the new iPhone. And WWDC this year will be very much about developers now being able to write apps for the iPhone. But I don’t see that as enough reason to bring Steve to the stage, since the news about the dev kit has already been announced. There must be something else. Maybe new laptops to match the MacBook Air? Or iTunes deals? Or something completely different? (Apple has been hinting about all new products later this year)

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